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08/22/2010 - Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Heyward and Omar Infante both finished with four hits, including two homers, scored four times and each drove in four runs as Atlanta dominated Chicago, 16-5, in the finale of a three-game set from Wrigley Field which was also the terminal contest in the storied managerial career of Lou Piniella.
Although the 66-year-old had announced last month that he would retire effective the end of the season, he abruptly moved up the date to Sunday. Mike Quade will take the reins for remainder of the season, beginning Monday in Washington.
Derrek Lee had three RBI and Alex Gonzalez knocked in a pair for the Braves, who took two of three in the series and have won six of eight overall.
Mike Minor (2-0) allowed seven hits and three runs over six innings for the win. The 22-year-old left-hander fanned a career-best 12 batters, after fanning 10 in his first two career starts.
Aramis Ramirez finished 3-for-4 with a two-run home run for the Cubs, losers in six of their last seven. Marlon Byrd added three hits and an RBI while Blake DeWitt and Xavier Nady also drove in a run each.
Randy Wells (5-12) was charged in defeat for seven hits and seven runs -- five earned -- with five strikeouts and four walks in six-plus frames.
Already ahead by two, the Braves broke the game wide open with a four-run seventh. Infante and Heyward singled, leaving Wells to exit and Diamond Thomas to enter the game before a fielding error on a Martin Prado grounder loaded the bases.
Lee flew out and James Russell got the nod, only to allow a run-scoring fielder's choice by Brian McCann. Melky Cabrera walked and Justin Berg was called on but surrendered a three-run hit from Gonzalez which made it 9-3.
Atlanta piled on in the eighth with five runs as Heyward scored one with a single, Lee slugged a bases-clearing double and Cabrera grounded into a fielder's choice for a 14-3 game.
Chicago cut its deficit to nine in the home half on a DeWitt pinch-hit RBI single and a fielder's choice grounder from Nady.
Heyward rocketed a two-run homer to right in the ninth for a 16-5 contest, then Cristhian Martinez turned in a scoreless bottom of the frame.
Each side picked up a run in the first as Infante launched his first homer of the game, then Byrd countered with an RBI single.
Heyward's one-out solo shot put the Braves ahead in the third, but Ramirez hit a two-run shot in the home half to give the Cubs a one-run edge.
Infante reached the bleachers again in the fourth with a three-run blast for a 5-3 Atlanta edge.
Game Notes
Infante's last multi-homer game came on September 17, 2003 with Detroit against the White Sox...Heyward recorded his first career multi-homer contest...Piniella exits the game with a record of 1835-1713 with the Yankees (1986-88), Reds (1990-92), Mariners (1993-2002), Rays (2003-05) and Cubs (2007-10)...He won a World Series with Cincinnati in 1990, and was a three- time manager of the year (1995 AL, 2001, 2008 NL)...Cubs leftfielder Alfonso Soriano's eighth-inning double was his 700th career extra-base hit...The Braves won four of six in the season series.
<< Giants add more offense with Marlins' Ross
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Francisco Giants have been awarded
outfielder Cody Ross after claiming him off waivers from the Florida Marlins.
Ross, a starting outfielder for the Marlins the past five years, is hitting
.263
<< Kendall's hit in 10th gives Royals series win over ChiSox
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Kendall singled home the winning run
in the bottom of the 10th inning, and Kansas City beat the Chicago White Sox,
3-2, in the rubber match of a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium.
Gregor Blanco
<< Ciani's injury-time goal helps Bordeaux edge PSG
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Ciani scored in injury time to help
Bordeaux edge PSG, 2-1, on Sunday at Parc des Princes for its first win of the
French Ligue 1 season.
Bordeaux lost to Montpellier and Toulouse in its first two g
<< Garcia silences Giants in Cardinals victory
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - St. Louis' Jaime Garcia had the best game of
his already impressive rookie campaign, tossing a three-hit shutout of the
Giants en route to a 9-0 victory in the rubber match of a three-game series
between
Rain postpones Rogers Cup again >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - More rain throughout the day and into the
evening on Sunday forced the postponement of the semifinals of the $2 million
Rogers Cup event.
Second-seeded Caroline Wozniacki of Denmark was ahead 2-0 in her
Oswalt solid, Polanco and Ibanez fuel offense as Phils blank Nats >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Placido Polanco went 2-for-3 and drove in
a pair of runs and Raul Ibanez hit a two-run homer to back seven shutout
innings from Roy Oswalt in Philadelphia's 6-0 win over Washington to close out
a three
Chacin splendid in pitching Rox past DBacks >>
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dexter Fowler went 2-for-3 and drove in the
only run of the game in the eighth inning, as Colorado edged Arizona, 1-0, to
avoid a three-game sweep at Chase Field.
Jhoulys Chacin (6-9) was sensational on
Longoria, Garza help Rays edge A's >>
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Evan Longoria's two-run double supported Matt
Garza's solid outing as Tampa Bay clipped Oakland, 3-2, in the finale of a
four-game set.
Kelly Shoppach drove in the other run for the Rays, who won the
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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NFL betting action is back! At MySportsbook, all of the pro football odds are posted for the NFC North. Check out how we see the four teams in this cloudy division stacking up this year in the chase for the playoffs! Green Bay Packers (+125) - With QB Aaron Rodgers leading the offense and DC Dom Capers working his magic on defense, the Packers are a real force to be reckoned with.
Virtually nothing changed on this offense for Green Bay from last year to this year, save for the addition of rookie OT Brian Bulaga to the bunch. Expect more huge numbers from the Pack, and a relatively favorable schedule should get them over the hump and into the playoffs once again this season. My NFL Betting Predictions: 11-5, 1st place in NFC North Minnesota Vikings (+130) - There are still too many unknowns about the Vikes this year. There is a huge difference between QB Brett Favre and either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels under center. Plus, is Favre comes back, is he really going to be able to keep his pick total under double digits again? Depth at running back looked like it might have been an issue with RB Chester Taylor fleeing in free agency, but drafting RB Toby Gerhart should pick up the difference. This defense is still suitable, but with a first place schedule, making the playoffs is going to be very tough regardless of whether #4 comes back or not.
There is a huge difference between QB Brett Favre and either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels under center. Plus, is Favre comes back, is he really going to be able to keep his pick total under double digits again? Depth at running back looked like it might have been an issue with RB Chester Taylor fleeing in free agency, but drafting RB Toby Gerhart should pick up the difference. This defense is still suitable, but with a first place schedule, making the playoffs is going to be very tough regardless of whether #4 comes back or not. Play this weekly NFL Football Contestto see if you can win.
Chicago Bears (+350) - The Bears are probably a bit of an overhyped team once again this year.No, we don't think it is plausible for QB Jay Cutler to have as bad of a season as he did last year, and we do think the additions of RB Chester Taylor and DE Julius Peppers are going to help immensely, but there's still something in the water in the Windy City that we aren't so sure about. Maybe Chicago finds its way to .500... but then again, maybe it doesn't. If Favre comes back, Cutler might be the worst quarterback in this division this year.
Detroit Lions (+1500) - The Lions are probably once again going to be the whipping boys for the rest of the teams in the NFC North, but they aren't just going to roll over and die once again. There is some real talent amassing on this team offensively, as the combination of QB Matt Stafford, RB Jahvid Best, WR Calvin Johnson, and TE Brandon Pettigrew should put a bunch of points on the board if the offensive line can even remotely hold up. The questions really lie on defense, where it feels like DT Ndamukong Suh is going to be trying to stop opposing teams all by himself. This year should show some marked improvement in the Motor City.
The Patriots will make NFL betting fans a lot of money this season, get in early and enjoy the cash.
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