Derby facing an uphill battle against relegation

Soccer Betting Lines

11/09/2007 - Derby, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has not been a pleasant experience for Derby in its return to the Premiership.

After earning promotion last season, the club has recorded just one win in 12 games, and has been outscored 26-5.

Derby currently resides at the bottom of the league table, and although they are just three points from clearing the drop zone, the rest of the season doesn't figure to get any easier.

Despite the terrible start, Derby players have remained optimistic, and they will have the added incentive of jumping out the relegation zone with a win against West Ham at Pride Park Stadium on Saturday.

"Obviously the chance for us to get off the bottom of the table is a massive incentive for us," midfielder Stephan Pearson told the club's website. "It's a game all the players are looking forward to and hopefully we can pick up the three points. Hopefully then we can try and go on some sort of run and pick up more points along the way."

It is good that the club is still hopeful, but hope is all that they may be able to cling to as the season progresses and the losses pile up.

The club's leaky defense will not get any help with injuries to defenders Andy Todd (back) and Claude Davis (adductor) keeping both out of action against West Ham, but the anemic attack could get a boost with the return of striker Kenny Miller to the lineup.

West Ham has battled injuries all season, and continues to fight through them in an effort to get into the top half of the table.

Manager Alan Curbishley and West Ham will try to extend its unbeaten streak in all competitions to five games on Saturday, but they will have to do so without midfielder Mark Noble, who will undergo a double hernia operation on Saturday.

Dean Ashton, Fredrik Ljungberg and James Collins are all possible returns for Curbishley, although decisions on each will not be made until game time.

In Saturday's other EPL contests, Newcastle brings a two-game losing skid into its contest with Sunderland, and Liverpool tries to pick up three needed points against Fulham.

On Sunday, Aston Villa travels to St Andrews Stadium to face off with Birmingham, Everton visits a Chelsea side that has won its last four EPL contests, struggling Bolton entertains Middlesbrough, Tottenham and Wigan, two of the bottom four teams in the league, meet up at White Hart Lane, Manchester City tries to maintain its lofty position in third place with a win at Portsmouth, while Manchester United is coming off of a 4-0 win over Dynamo Kiev on Wednesday in the Champions League and faces a good test against Blackburn.

Arsenal rounds out the weekend on Monday when the Gunners visit the Madejski Stadium to take on Reading. Arsenal is coming off of two consecutive draws, a 2-2 result against Manchester United last Saturday, and a disappointing 0-0 draw with Slavia Prague on Wednesday in Champions League play.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.