Green Bay Packers 2007 Draft Preview

Football Betting Lines

04/04/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Ahman Green now a Houston Texan, the Packers have a hole at running back that the franchise has not experienced heading into a season since the pre-Edgar Bennett days. Head coach Mike McCarthy says he's comfortable with Vernand Morency and Noah Herron sharing the ball-carrying load, though if a player like Cal's Marshawn Lynch is available at No. 16, it seems extremely unlikely that Green Bay would pass him up. The Pack played three rookies along the offensive line last year and are in need of depth in that department, a situation that could extend to an upgrade for Bubba Franks at the tight end position. McCarthy's team will head into the 2007 season with a promising nucleus on defense, though another playmaker along the defensive line and in the secondary would be a welcome addition.

2006 Record: 8-8

First Pick: No. 16

Number of Selections: 9 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 7, 7)

RECENT FIRST ROUND HISTORY: 2006 - A.J. Hawk (LB, Ohio State); 2005 - Aaron Rodgers (QB, Cal); 2004 - Ahmad Carroll (CB, Arkansas); 2003 - Nick Barnett (LB, Oregon State); 2002 - Javon Walker (WR, Florida State); 2001 - Jamal Reynolds (DE, Florida State); 2000 - Bubba Franks (TE, Miami); 1999 - Antuan Edwards (DB, Clemson); 1998 - Vonnie Holliday (DE, North Carolina); 1997 - Ross Verba (OL, Iowa); 1996 - John Michels (OT, Southern California); 1995 - Craig Newsome (DB, Arizona State); 1994 - Aaron Taylor (OL, Notre Dame); 1993 - Wayne Simmons (LB, Clemson), George Teague (S, Alabama); 1992 - Terrell Buckley (CB, Florida State); 1991 - Vinnie Clark (CB, Ohio State); 1990 - Tony Bennett (LB, Mississippi), Darrell Thompson (RB, Minnesota).

Lasveggas Football Betting News

<< Atlanta Falcons 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Falcons have multiple needs on defense, and with the No. 8 overall pick (obtained in the Matt Schaub trade) could justify selecting any of the following players - safeties LaRon Landry (LSU) and Reggie Nelson (Florida), t

<< Arizona Cardinals 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arizona has long featured one of the weakest lines in the league, and with disappointing-yet-serviceable tackle Leonard Davis now a Cowboy, the Cardinals could be setting their sights on a player like Penn State's Levi Brown

<< Chicago Bears 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Bears front seven was pushed around a fair amount in the latter stages of the 2007 season, so Chicago GM Jerry Angelo and head coach Lovie Smith are likely to focus on that area on the first day of the draft. A replacemen

<< Dallas Cowboys 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The performance of the Dallas secondary was beyond poor during the second half of last season, and the emphasis in drafting corners and/or safeties this year will likely be focused on their ability to cover more than hit. Ano

<< Ducks welcome rival Sharks to Honda Center
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Anaheim Ducks will try for their fourth consecutive victory tonight, when they welcome the rival San Jose Sharks to the Honda Center. The Ducks, Sharks and Dallas Stars have already clinched a playoff berth, but are s

San Francisco 49ers 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Niners are in major need of a No. 1 receiver after releasing Antonio Bryant, and might have to look long and hard at multi- talented Ohio State standout Ted Ginn, Jr. There are also secondary needs, though the signings of

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If he is still available at No. 4, there is no way the Buccaneers can pass up Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson. However, if another team trades up to snatch Johnson with one of the first three picks, it won't be the

Philadelphia Eagles 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Outside linebacker and defensive tackle were two of the Eagles' biggest need areas entering the offseason, but a trade for ex-Bill Takeo Spikes and the acquisition of former Colt Montae Reagor helped offset those respective r

D-Backs, Rockies play rubber match at Coors >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of pitchers will make debuts with their new clubs this afternoon when the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies conclude their three-game series at Coors Field. Left-hander Doug Davis was acquired by Arizona in

Carolina Panthers 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Panthers had glaring weaknesses at linebacker and on the offensive line last year, and though both positions should be healthier in 2007, upgrades are also needed. With top tackler Chris Draft now a member of the Rams and

Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.