NCAA prospects fast tracking to the NHL

Hockey Betting Lines

08/16/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the decision to forego college, Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Jerry D'Amigo and Montreal Canadiens first rounder Jarred Tinordi have joined a growing list of NHL draft picks to put down the books in favor of opportunism.

Although there is still immense talent throughout the college system, the repercussions of losing some of the brightest up-and-coming stars could have damaging long-term effects on hockey programs across the United States.

D'Amigo, a sixth-round pick in 2009, signed a three-year entry-level contract with the Leafs on Wednesday in the hopes of cracking the big squad out of training camp this fall.

As a result of D'Amigo's aspirations, he lost his NCAA eligibility and cannot return to Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he posted 10 goals and 24 assists in 35 games en route to being named the Eastern College Athletic Conference (ECAC) rookie of the year.

If the 19-year old fails to impress in camp, his options include taking a trip down the road to suit up for the Toronto Marlies, or opt for the OHL and join the Kitchener Rangers, the owner of his junior rights.

While it is unlikely D'Amigo abandoned his fellow Engineers at RPI to play in the OHL, riding the bus in the American Hockey League is a different story, especially with the parent club in the same city.

Regardless of where the speedy winger starts the season, NHL action seems to be in the cards at some point this year, a mind-boggling revelation considering his development and expectations only a year ago.

Unlike D'Amigo who gave it the old college try (for one year, anyway), Tinordi changed course only a few weeks before he was slated to head off to study and play at the University of Notre Dame.

Instead, the hulking 6'6" defenseman will pack his bags and join Dale Hunter and the London Knights in the OHL.

Tinordi, the 22nd overall in this year's entry draft, is a bruising stay-at- home defenseman with a booming shot and good mobility. He also displayed his leadership qualities this past season as the captain of the U.S. National Development team.

Studying the game in the ultra-competitive OHL while honing his skills under the reigning coach of the year will do wonders for his progress, and was likely a major reason for the move.

Unfortunately for the NCAA, the current economic climate in the NHL, combined with the advanced development regiments of the OHL and the U.S. national team has allowed for a quicker transition to professional hockey.

In the salary cap world, players on entry-level deals become invaluable and opportunities arise sooner than they have in previous years. Thus, committing to four years of college has become a less attractive option for many.

Besides Tinordi, fellow draftees Cam Fowler and Jack Campbell also revoked their commitments to Notre Dame and Michigan, respectively, and fled to Windsor to join the Spitfires.

Dropping out of college and passing up thousands of dollars worth of scholarship money does not usually equate to success in the real world. But in the NHL, when ample opportunities call for younger, cheaper players, the math speaks for itself.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.